SHFE tin ingot inventory drops to 8,025 mt, SHFE tin prices rise slightly before pulling back under pressure [SMM Tin Market Brief Review]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract for May 20, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a fluctuating trend at highs. After opening higher in the daytime session, it surged to 265,600 yuan/mt, but subsequently faced pressure and pulled back, closing near 264,750 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.29% from the previous trading day. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with open interest slightly decreasing to 25,800 lots, indicating that some bulls took profits and exited the market. Bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war around the 265,000 yuan/mt level.

As of May 16, SHFE tin ingot inventory dropped to 8,025 mt, a decrease of 94 mt from the previous day, though the absolute level remained above the five-year average. The spot market maintained a high premium, with the Yunnan Tin brand premium reaching 800-1,200 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, smelters showed strong willingness to refuse to budge on prices, but high prices suppressed actual transactions.

Monitoring of Key Variables:

Progress of Mine Resumptions: Monitor the port arrivals of the Bisie mine in the DRC in June and policy developments in Myanmar's Wa region;

Downstream Restocking Rhythm: If tin prices pull back below 260,000 yuan/mt, it may trigger restocking demand from some enterprises;

Macro Policy Developments: Adjustments to Sino-US tariffs, the US Fed's interest rate path, and the intensity of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth.